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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.